September 28, 2011 - 16:30PM
The following is the output of the real-time captioning taken during the Sixth Meeting of the IGF, in Nairobi, Kenya. Although it is largely accurate, in some cases it may be incomplete or inaccurate due to inaudible passages or transcription errors. It is posted as an aid to understanding the proceedings at the session, but should not be treated as an authoritative record.
>> GEORGE SADOWSKY: Good afternoon, Ladies and Gentlemen, we'll start in about 30 seconds. Okay. Good afternoon. You are sitting in workshop Number 109 which is titled Mobile Internet, Opportunities and Challenges in Business and Governance. So if that's what you want to do, you're in the right room. If it's not what you want to do, you may want to consider finding a different geography. And if you're just sitting here doing e-mail, it's okay. But you should listen from time to time. So, my name is George Sadowsky. I'm your moderator and it lasts an hour and a half. We have four presentations unless the fifth presenter shows up. And we'll spend about ten minutes per presentation. And then open the floor to questions and comments, and there will be a few rules for that and we'll go over that when the speakers are done.
So the moderator is tasked with providing an introduction to the session. I am not a mobile expert, but I lived a long time. So that gives me the ability to go back and compare how things were and how things are. And, note that we really do live in Internet time. It was. Everything seems accelerated. And that's probably because everything is accelerated. We have fascinating technology, based upon rapid technical progress, Moore's Law, rapidly diminishing costs and escalating capabilities, miniaturization and increases in reliability, in recent years, maybe ten or 15 years, we've watched an explosion of trained people who can build software and systems.
And at the same time, because of the revolutions in interfaces, simplicity, low cost of devices, we have an explosion of potential users. All of this creates what one might call an explosive -- perfect storm in which our world is increasingly inhabited by devices and people who love them and use them a lot.
We have 600 million computers and 2 billion users and hundreds of millions of Internet nodes and many software developers and in the communications side, we have a mirror image of that increasingly now. Cooper lines are disappearing. Fiber is increasingly, used for larger and larger bandwidth transmissions. And while we have wireless, it does two things terribly important, it gives us mobility of our devices; and second, it allows us to forget about landline infrastructure for large parts of the world, where landline infrastructure simply is not economically feasible.
So, all of this is -- or a lot of this is due initially to the spectrum technologies, military technicals until the early 1990s which formed the basis of 802-11 ABG versions and since then, there have been other technologies which increased bandwidth at lower costs.
It's a wild world out there of lots of options. The market is sorting things out slowly. But to the user's benefit. And this wireless environment that the fact that it's increasing gives us -- it's an entirely new environment in some respects. It's reshaping industries. Instead of now data over voice, some of you may remember something called modems. We now have Voice over Data by in large. And we have mobility going into other sectors, for example, in banking and we're particularly interested in countries in talking about that and that clearly is going to have some impact on the banking sector, financial sector, as well as potentially regulatory aspects of banking and mobile banking.
We have applications in almost every area of human endeavor that are mobile. I'd like to think we're in the childhood of understanding the possibilities that this offers.
I think we're beyond infancy. I'm not sure we're to adolescence yet. So we have lots of issues that come up. There are legal issues, policy issues, competition issues. And it is sort of like deja vue, because we have gone through these issues with -- in earlier times with respect to other technologies and other polly spaces, but, the characteristics of the technology make it completely different.
So, we really live in a very interesting world where we are sorting out a lot of stuff. We may never sort it out. This is a dynamic industry and we have not approached the static state yet and I don't think we will. But we have issues to talk about here. And we have a panel of four people who are imminently qualified to talk about them. I'm not going to make the mistake of trying to introduce them and tell you bios.
I won't do it right. And they're perfectly capable of doing that even better than I am.
So we'll have the four speakers, about ten minutes each. I'll count on the speakers self-control to moderate their time. And I think that will be successful. And then we'll go into general discussion. The first speaker is Jonne Soininen.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Thank you very much, George, let me quickly take my presentation out. I have a presentation in that sense just for that reason because otherwise I would not remember what I'm supposed to say. I'm not -- I'm Jonne Soininen and I come from Renesas Mobile, fairly new, December of 2010 concentrating on building platforms for mobile phones, so this means chips and software for mobile phones basically for the hands of many manufacturers to build phones upon and I am a techy, I'm not policy person, that much George very well knows. I'm going to talk a little more about the technical nature, what is important -- what is importance of mobile broadband and mobile Internet access and what are some characteristics you may want to kind of like or what you might want to -- access full of broadband Internet deployment and technologies.
First of all, oh, this is interesting.
Well, you won't be able to read the slides for some reason. But they looked just fine five minutes ago. Welcome to the wonderful world of software. So, basically the first thing about mobile broadband and mobile Internet access is that it is the enabler for Internet access in many places. It's the enabler in developed countries and for places in rural areas or not very easily wired with wireless -- wired connections and it's enabler especially as we've seen in developing countries where it is perhaps the only economically viable possibility to drive Internet access to the people and give Internet access to the masses. One of the reasons for that is because it is more cost effective to build wireless networks and one thing what is very important, also, is that the end users are less -- are less tied to one place and tied to things like power line energy.
But it can be mobile and it can be working out of devices that run on batteries.
The other thing is what mobile broadband and mobile Internet access is driving is the new wireless revolution. Basically, what it is doing is doing the same thing for Internet access that mobile phones did to voice. Basically, making it first of all, personal, something that you can carry with you, something that you can use anywhere and everywhere. And something that brings it to the masses.
So if we think about, for instance, penetration of the fixed landline, in many countries, in the '80s or '90s, not only developed but also in developing countries the mobile phone has done revolution there, giving it basically the possibility for many more people to have it, use it in a different way, and basically driving a totally new possibilities for people to get connected.
And we really think that basically, the mobile Internet access is doing the same thing now for Internet access as mobile phone did for circuit switch voice access.
One thing that is important about affordability is that the mobile Internet access is affordable. To keep it affordable and to give affordable Internet access the first important thing is to use standardized technologies. Basically the systems of multiple vendors on hand sets, chips, multiple network vendors and having a full system of different players. And there's where standards come in. When you have global standards and global adaption off of technology, you have much better possibility to drive for volumes and basically drive for more for cost effectiveness of the technology than it is with proprietary technologies. One other important issue to basically allow the economics of scale is to use to have harmonized spectrum regulation. Basically, if some countries or regions use very unstandard spectrum, it's difficult basically you have to make special products for those countries which also then increase the cost for those countries or for those regions or for those operators basically that buy that equipment or the end users that buy the hand sets.
So basically -- and it's also limits the number of vendors and products that are available in that space. Important is also to use widely used technologies. So even if some technologies are standard, basically, it's important to look at what is the up take of those technologies and what are the basically what is this global support for that, both in vendors and operators and also then ultimately to the end users? And, of course, the last but not least is making sure that you enable competition that between different players there, that did not get artificial lack of competition and then artificially high prices. The really interesting part at this time, we've had possibilities of mobile broadband for some time. But what we're kind of looking at now and basically, this is really exciting, coming especially from platform or chip manufacturer is that the building blocks off especially hand sets are begun -- I mean for affordable, more accessible, more powerful so you can build new -- build smart phone devices for more cost-effective ranges and not only for the highest range.
And now, the lower and middle and smart phones are becoming more affordable or more accessible. And what is even -- what is also very important in developed countries for ease of use and developing countries for the ability to use them, is also that devices are becoming and platforms are becoming more energy efficient and you can get that smart phone experience out of a phone with less battery usage and you don't have to basically charge your phone four times a day, and sometimes you do nowadays.
The other thing is that the difference between devices is -- or device categories is really blurring. We're getting these mobile platforms are becoming so powerful now, you have similar processors now in mobile phones that you just have a couple of years ago in PCs and this basically, the similar kind of experience on phones and tablets that used to have -- and PCs and now you have actually similar software running on or even the same software running on PCs that you had a year ago running on mobile phones. And the kind of -- and it's really the kind of the cycle of Innovations has gone to that. The mobile phone as a platform or mobile platforms, whichever they might be, tablets or -- is kind of like the driver of Innovations rather than PC side which used to be the thing still a few years ago. Of course, what is good thing, things continue to get smaller.
Which means that you can use it also especially get cellular wide area Internet connectivity with bandwidth into totally new applications namely machine to machine type applications like healthcare, automotive, safety and so on. And where you cannot previously do that, because the, basically the wireless modems were too big, too expensive or used too much energy.
One thing I have in the slide is also that the modern broadband wireless broadband technologies are getting very fast. So, now, in some countries at least, you can get better bandwidth all right on mobile phone and then you can sometimes get over DSL. So we're getting to the -- related to this time where basically new technologies especially LTE enable comparable or even better experience for the end user than the wired line.
So thank you very much. I hope I did not exceed my time. At least my clock says 8:54, 55, 56 (laughter).
>> GEORGE SADOWSKY: Thank you very much, Jonne, we have a self-appointed timer here. He's unofficial however, so you can take his advice and not as a real requirement. So our second speaker is excuse me I've been asleep here, I know I don't remember his last name. Is Moses Sitati from the Nokia research center in Nairobi.
>> MOSES SITATI: Thank you, George, so as you heard my name is Moses Sitati from Nokia based in Nairobi. We do user research and looking to basically build mobile-based devices or services, which are relevant and specific to the African market or African user. So what I would like to share this afternoon is some broad strokes from a user perspective in terms of what that mobile Internet experience should be like, how we would approach it, and some of the considerations we would make while talking about that Internet experience. Yes, so, to begin with, I'll just going to quickly share some numbers.
Just to paint the opportunity that we're talking about really, the figures are from early open this year and might have changed slightly. But roughly out of the 7 billion people we have on the planet today 3.2 billion of those do not own a phone. And 3.7 billion do own a phone. And out of that 3.7 billion, we have 1.2 who completely have no Internet capability on the phone. They maybe only have SMS and 1.5 billion who have a browser but don't use it and maybe you can just take a note of that. Our question you can ask there is why? So this really begins to paint Ape picture for us that in the 1.2 and 1.5 billion that's where we begin talking about the next billion which is a term probably a lot of you have already heard. But for Nokia, it is intentional group of people that we're focusing on.
And the next billion people who are going to be entering information age, not through personal computer but through the mobile phone. And so for us, the consideration and question is how are we going to bring affordable Internet and applications to these -- this particular customers. So, is it just an issue of bringing the Internet or how should we approach this. Is it just a matter of building infrastructure and connectivity, and then saying to these particular users here it is we built it, use it. Yes, so, this -- the next slide is just a quick illustration. This also shows what some of you know the story of the project. And at the beginning, on the top left, we have this solution that is supposed to be rolled out to the users or to the people eventually. In order to have up on the top right is what the sponsor, how the sponsor visualized it.
And it's broken telephone as it goes on from the sponsor, to the project request to the designer and so on. You can see it evolving and what you eventually end up with in middle, bottom row, is what they put up. It's totally different from what the project sponsor thought. But, also completely different from what the people wanted. And if we apply this to the Internet and issue of the Internet, are we saying -- do we know what these next billion users expect the Internet to be? What do they want it to be for them? What does it mean for them? And so that's a question or awareness I want to put out there, that's it's very much a consolidated process one, which for us, we approach from the user site. So, there's some questions which on the next slide, which can help in -- as we start talking about providing Internet to the next billion. So those are users I worked with in Pika and rural, semi-rural. A lot of them were first time user interest -- using Internet for the first time. And some interesting questions, I mean, when talking about providing Internet to the next billion who are the users? Where do they live? What do they do? What is their language and culture? What are their information needs? So we say Internet will I mean, help people gain information and be more empowered but what is the information based on their lively hood activities and economic activities what really are they looking for?
How can they be connected simply and quickly? Is it the typical users will not be familiar with terms URL or browser? Those are things that they cannot quickly adapt to in this next billion category? And what is the meaning of the Internet to them? Is it Internet that they want? Or is it the ability to accomplish a need that they have in their life? For example, getting their goods to the market or selling their goods or creating awareness about their small business and things like that. And what are the tools that are best suited to enable them to make the best use of them? So if considering they're mobile, they're in rural areas with also infrastructure challenges, maybe a large number of them also have a low literacy level, so the typical tools that would come with mobile hope to would not be immediately adaptable to them as the natural thing to use to connect to the web. What are the motivations and challenges and what would it take to provide a meaningful connectivity to them, for them? And they're basically referring to issues of content, local content, something that is relevant and affordable even for them at that level. So this is -- this is not exhaustive list but some of the questions that are useful in basically the next billion discussion. Okay. So what am I saying? The users that are going to be approached by the next wave of Internet moving to mobile platform, probably not the ones that we're used to, the well-educated technical users or internet users that have experience with navigating complex menus or use interfaces and so on. But, they are aware of the Internet. And they association the Internet with rich mobile experience.
So in the customer sales points a lot of the customers coming in lower end are much more sophisticated now and questioning for more advanced features even at the low end or lower costs. For example, the want cameras and longer battery life and music or memory cards blue tooth, and things like that. So, it's -- that sophistication coming in and there's that awareness that, I want my phone or my device to be able to do this. In addition, some of the things happening at least in Kenya situation is we have now local businesses starting to build and create apps to deliver services to the customers and to market these to the customers. So they use although on a small scale but increasing awareness of apps as that middle ground or stepping stone to Internet. And another interesting observation is while music services right now are quite popular in Kenya, where, through, partnership with operator, you can download an MP 3 track and even from last year, the monthly down loads from one of the leading companies was around 300,000 to 400,000 down loads and ring tones and full MP 3 and most were coming from URL users or semi-urban users.
So you have that sophistication and awareness coming in and growing.
So in conclusion, the challenges may be as I've been speaking and also over the course of the conference, you may understand there's quit a lot of challenges, things like literacy, infrastructure problems, the devices themselves, but it's in that richness of the community or of the people where the opportunity lies. So when we look at the social patents and practices that they have they're the economic models we have for the lively hood and the skills and knowledge they very many within themselves this is where the opportunity lies to build value in terms of meaningful Internet experience. And some approaches that can be taken, or that we look at. So imbedding applications within mobile device in itself. So like a friendly face to the Internet. You may be familiar with Nokia life tools.
So this is within the menu of the device itself. One-stop shop for information on different facets of life, for example, education, or health care or agriculture, entertainment, things like this so you use the Internet without having to go through a browser. And these need basically for new user interface paradigms but can cut across cultures or platforms and literacy level. Given the familiarity with desktop browser or Internet browsing is not a given. Off-line Internet, can we look into that. Off-line Internet. What options are in there? Can we download bits of the Internet and basic -- and have it shared around to those not connected. And related to that, looking at peer to peer networking we acknowledge that individuals can have lots of knowledge and skills which would be useful to others.
So if we look at ad hoc networking through connecting peer devices, peer to peer it's an experience we can build in there which could be similar to the Internet. Of course, a meaningful Internet experience will not be able to happen without useful content and for us we believe users are the ones that can define and determine what content they want to consume and what is meaningful for them. So I think giving them the tools, easy to do yourself tools, to build or create the content to share it, to consume it, still through the mobile device. And as you know I was refer together capabilities of phones just becoming more -- at the lower end you have phones still much more cape able. Yes. So these are high level some thoughts I wanted to share in our approaches and in the discussion and Internet for the next billion.
>> GEORGE SADOWSKY: Thanks, very much, and that provides a very nice segue into the next presentation by David Souter.
>> DAVID SOUTER: I'm David Souter independent consult enter and in the London university. I'll report on findings of focus group study and empirical study of earlier doctors of mobile Internet in Kenya. This was undertaken sent, October of last year. The research was funded by Vodaphone and supported by a local company, Sederet and it has been published in and I forum and will be published in another. Briefly the focus groups in Nairobi, Nyria and Kisumu. And additional group of cafe managers to assess impact on their business. We were looking at middle ranking professionals and business people, shop keepers, taxi drivers, school students. So we were not looking at high status individuals but early in the mainstream population and the purpose of this study is to gets perceptions and indicators of how fem feel about something.
It's not you appreciate it's qualitative. I want to give nine findings and if time and they'll let me I'll make populations. First, these people were earlier doctors were highly intensive users of mobile Internet, two aspects one positive and negative. High value in mobile Internet in terms of Internet social attractions and high level of anxiety about the amount of time they were using on mobile Internet. So in six of the groups of users so majority there were at least one person who referred to their behavior as addictive by using that word and several other who referred to it in those terms. And at that point was anxiety about Time wasting and negative impacts on domestic life and other opportunities. Secondly, they saw the mobile handset as not a phone but mobile -- multi-purpose handset device being used as radio, music camera, video, games console, personal organizer, note bad, wallet, debit card, phone.
And now cyber cafe.
And it was handheld device that did everything the user wanted it to do. It reminded me of, if I can be flippant, of the TV series "Star Trek" and the device did anything the writer needed to do. And thirdly, the main drivers of use were lifestyle, social and recreational uses not business and not developmental. It was leading programs were facebook, Yahoo, walk trick for games, Google and youtube. I don't think it's surprising but consistent with other media. It's entertainment and social interaction were they key drivers of usage here. So, strongly related friendship groups and bored only. The other fourth point second crucial driver was cost of usage. This suddenly was undertaken shortly after Safari introduced flat rate daily charge for mobile data and it clearly had a major impact on people's propensity to use mobile in high levels of usage that were being reported.
Fifth, facebook was clearly the most important driver of all. It was overwhelmingly he mentioned facebook being used as a verb, booking used as a verb, actually, shortened form of it. Facebook was very, very important feature of these earlier doctor's usage of mobile Internet. I think it was one of the top five bone sites for 80% of the people in this group. But that's figure consistent with what you see on Alexa.com if you look at usage of facebook I think they're reporting something like 40% of Internet user on any given day are using facebook at some point. So if you're not aware of this, it is a holy dominant social network in what was perhaps a more competitive market nearest being Twitter and LinkedIn, I see this in different environments I done work on Internet in Saudi Arabia And actually very similar.
Sixth, what I think you are seeing there is default past time use. For these people, for these earlier doctors mobile Internet was default past time use. It's what they did in the way that perhaps in my country people read the newspaper or dot crossword in the newspaper or Sudoku in the newspaper. Let me quote you some and give you a feel of the focus group. Response to the question are where are you accessing Internet, in the car, on the toilet, in bed, al at home, living room, at work, when I escape from family meeting, in church when it's boring, meetings at work when number is being nuisance and when you meet someone and he is boring or blushing or during a jam when you're in a shop and not doing anything and maybe when you're free and don't have much to do which really summarizes it. Where am I? Eight I think.
There's a significantly interesting personal versus cyber cafe use. These p.m. were not stopping using cyber cafes. They were using mobile phone in cyber cafe for different purposes. And again I'll quote, says former taxi driver in Nairobi I think comparison when you go to cyber you have something specifically you will do when you plan in advance with the phone there's no plan. It's impulsive not premeditates. Mobile interest felt in was used for researching purposes but cyber cafe being used for certain things where you needed intensive keyboard use or large screen watching football. Downloading large files, doing comparison shopping. Those kinds of activities. So both were still being used it was not driving cyber cafe out of business and that was the manager's view as well and in terms of location of use.
Other research suggested 70% of mobile Internet use is in the home. As opposed to on the move. So it's interesting question about how significant mobility per se is to mobile internet. Lastly, the most desired changes I think this is echoing something you were just saying, the most desired changes were to do with the "Handset" configuration. Longer battery life, screening, keyboard capabilities and hard drive capabilities they were more important than network quality and responses and cost of hand sets that was being talked about rather than cost of usage. So I think what you're getting there is demand for improved quality experience of the device as opposed to network. So do I have time for speculations do you think? Your machine going off. A few speculations.
>> You're okay with time.
>> DAVID SOUTER: I have seven speculations how far these earlier doctors reflect longer time use. I do have concerns about this. Look I still see my own early work on adoption of phones in East Africa being used as if it's relevance to current phones of use in East Africa which it's not. I expect earlier doctors to -- and gradually diminishing basis and later they achieve differently so early doctors for example are more likely to use Twitter than later doctors, as an example. Second speculation is that evidence of class shift in Internet. And several of the people in focus groups were referring to this. I'll give you a quick reaction again, because it's favoring the poor. A long time ago only the rich would access and even now the poor can access it. It was kind of reflected in a number of people's comments.
Essentially mobile Internet is the point the Internet moved from being elite service to mass markets service or at least that's how they were perceiving it. Third speculation area, entertainment is a key driver of adoption. I think all -- I mean my personal view is all historic media in entertainment and sort of personal relationships have been much more important as drivers of adoption than have things that let's say development community thinks are good for you. And so entertainment is often disparaged but you can see the access point. What happens is people become habitual users of something new because it's fun. Because of lifestyle reasons. Because of event functions and hopes with interpersonal relationships. It's habituation that drivers adoption and developmental uses, pushing devices and developmental use from the front will not be productive this is my speculation here.
In other words the predominance of lifestyle uses is something we should welcome from a development perspective and from a business weather perspective. Full speculation you don't see local science on that list. I didn't see local science much anywhere. And obviously there's a lot of discussion of about that and the only local site in fact that you find anywhere near the top of daily nation and otherwise British football team sites were more prominant than local sites. Is there an issue of no local content. The issue is in fact absolutely not. Local content is on facebook. That's what facebook is doing here providing local content. And I think what your -- what that streets here I'm looking maybe to business or government issue that actually facebook or social networking, if you want to be less focused on one company, but social networking is the root by which eGovernment and business marketing, Local business marketing Are going to find more effective than Web sites in this particular market.
So facebook is well configured for mobile Internet use and people work clearly using it in that sort of way. Again that's a speculation. It's not best for E Government and business marketing, That at a local level than the Web site. Fifth will the high levels of facebook be sustainable. Network externalities for facebook are extremely powerful. So possibly so. I think that races important questions about competition and regulation. And the notion of facebook is a social utility that is something that is performing a function that is very close to what a utility historically performed. And so but whether it's sustainable who knows you would not have predict today five years ago because it barely existed. Six, moving on and going on from that rapid change in unpredictability or problematically.
One of the other things I did is to write for CSTD world review at the summit and there were 239 references to the Internet in the world summit final documents and one reference to phones. That's telephone, mobile for phone. Those two words one reference and that was about child protection. I think the perception that we move from perception of computer based Internet to perception of mobile based Internet over five years that's remarkably fast and difficult to predict usage patterns from the future for all of that. Companies like yours need to be so flexible, you know, in response to changing demand. Lastly, what matters more, handset or the next work. I kind of suggested many of these users what they were implying at the moment they felt the handset was more important of the two things. It's that no say network quality is not important.
My speculation here is about how you move forward on that. Because it seems to me the logic is that the mobile network is actually going to be something you connect the device to. And it's the net book actually that is the key thing in the home as opposed to fixed access in the next sort of phase would be my speculation on that. Few speculations people might want to shoot down. Thanks.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Okay. So, this will give you something to think about during the next speaker.
GEORGE SADOWSKY: Our last speaker John Karanja, CEO of Whive.com, Am I pronouncing that right? Tell us about it.
>> JOHN KARANJA: Thank you, George, as you heard I'm John Karanja, CEO of Whive built for Africa and other African markets. What we've done is integrated existing platforms in Africa such as facebook, Twitter, so SMS And actually concur with the last speaker, that facebook has become such a dominant force in Africa that we had to build our platform within facebook. So when you're counting for traffic light going to facebook. Some of that is going to local applications that already exist on that platform. So my next slide basically expresses Africa as an opportunity. We have about 300 billion plus users in Africa. About 56 million of those users are using smart phones and that's where applications like Whive and facebook come N in Kenya we have about quarter billion SMSs being sent every month. Which indicates that SMS is the main platform that users are engaging and managing applications should deploy on their systems.
So what is sort of policy that we need to implement in this regard. I think the Kenian Government through the CCK, body that manages communications in Kenya, has made sure that SMS termination rates are very low. So what this has done is allowed developers to come up with applications that use SMS as a gateway for acquiring users and providing services. Sop there you're seeing a lot of SMS Innovations coming out of Kenya. So, that takes me to the next slide basically about the mobile ecosystem. I'm sure you all heard about Empresa. It's an SMS driven application. For those that don't know it allows the Kenian to keep his money on digital wallet on mobile phone and what it does is he transacts with agents anywhere in the country. So, for example, if you look on the map on this screen you can see the density of capacity in Kenya and you can look to northeastern part of Kenya you can see there's a
semi-arid almost desert-like area and you can see they have a footprint there. So this sort of vacation, using simple tool like SMS is presented in the world. And because of that, MPC is translating 2 billion every year in Kenya which is 10% of gross domestic product of the countries. So, again, what will be done, policy and structural frameworks, pleaing to achieve this sort of success. If you go back about five years ago the central bucks Governor actually agreed to have for the first time in the world no regulation, or rather little regulation for mobile money services built on top of digital platform. Mobile DS has done this and actually Kenya is the first country to do this. As the rest of the world is sort of catching up with platforms such as NFC, Google Wallet launched about two weeks ago, Kenya already has some experience it can contribute in this regard.
Now, you can look at that information. And I think in line with other initiatives such as open data initiative, when we'll begin to see sort of other applications built on top of this mobile money system and in Kenya. And I actually have a few examples if I can go to the next slide? I've talked about MCOMS and Empresa is a transaction platform and expect to see other applications that allow for trading of goods from Empresa. Agriculture is next huge opportunity. And center of global markets is shifting from the west to east. And in about 40 years, by 2050, 50% of was GCP will number Asia, particularly China, taking the lead there. And the people in Asia need one thing. They need food. And it so happens that Africa has the largest unkept eligible land that can be used to provide food for Asia for example so., what needs to happen sent policy and structural frameworks need to be built to allow the developers to come up with applications that interlink, Kenya, for example, is china A there's applications have to be made Chinese because Chinese dominantly speak their true dominant languages there. So I think there needs to be a shift in the mind-set in terms of imagining developers coming from places like Kenya to markets that are going increasingly. I think one such application that has gotten a regular wrestling is called LFOM. To date they have 2600 farmers on their platform this is just after one year.
Showing there's a lot of push activity in this regard. The next sector is health. Everybody needs to be healthy to work. And Innovations has begun to turn up in Kenya and you actually have some guys, fast guys I believe from Easton, I believe it's Easton Africa, to go to demo conference in San Francisco about two weeks ago to present a health application targeting Africans. This is a huge need. And it may be that in the future, that Kenians and -- services primarily through mobile phone. Given that countries in like Kenya only has 7,000 doctors for occupation for 14 million individuals. One sector that remains largely untouched, and we're got seeing a lot of Innovations, just education. Perhaps because this is quite a tricky sector and even if you think about it, how many education applications do you know that exist in the western world or how many mobile applications have you observed loaded on your iPhone.
They're not very many. So, obviously a lot of work needs to be do in this sector to make it catch up with the other fast evolving sectors. I just want to finish by saying we recognize at Whive that SMS is still very important and we're working together with entrepreneurs and applications that I have mentioned to talking to this emerging opportunities in Kenya. Thank you.
>> GEORGE SADOWSKY: Thank you very much. If I had to summarize this, I don't think I would be able to. There's lots of threads here. Very interesting points made. One of the -- two that occurred to me are that we're obviously in a very dynamic situation here more than I had realized and things are changing very rapidly the fast acceptance and embracing of intelligent phones and web-enabled phones is going very quickly and it's not clear what that will do ultimately to dominance of SMS. It will probably always stay around for the lower cost phones. The content conundrum is interesting. I would not have expected the report that David gave about content being on facebook and not necessarily content as we know it in the north and west where it was really phenomenon I would call content push that helped to popularize the web and drive a lot of users to the web and it almost suggest as I thought experiment if facebook was the first application open the web in 1993 or '94 when the web came out would we have the amount of content we have on the web or would the Internet have become much more of a communications device rather than information transfer device.
We won't be able to run that experiment. So, now I'd like to open the floor top interventions and I would like to suggest the following protocol. We have 33 minutes. And so I ask everybody who intervenes no matter what they say to be conscious of time and ration it. If you want to start a new subject please raise your hand like this. If you want to dot reverse, if you want to just correct something that's said by somebody that you think might add to clarity, so on, hold up one finger. I'll hold you to five seconds. You'll be able to get your five seconds in there and provide clarification. And if you want to provide a slightly longer comment on the current subject hold up two fingers. All right. And you may choose the fingers. So, with that, I think there's a lot to pick up here. Who would like to start?
>> JONNE SOININEN: Robert Pepper from Cisco. Couple things. On your speculation we actually have evidence that your -- some of your speculation is actually correct. Already. So it's good speculation. First, in terms of the entertainment or some of the entertainment type of services driving, you know, in our continuous five-year rolling analysis called visual network and index we're projecting globe globally that for consumers, 60% of the data that's going to be driven across the Internet will be for video of all types. In South Africa, by 20 15 that will be 87% of the traffic demand will be video. And anybody who is interested I can talk more about that later in detail off-line. The other thing that I think is actually important to incorporate into the conversation about the mobile Internet is some of you heard me joke, that when people talk about mobile network I have no idea what that means, there's no such thing.
The network in fact is not mobile the network other than mobile satellite I'm mobile, device is mobile and untethered, between 65 and 85% of use of even GSM voice mobile phone is used indoors sitting down. When you're not moving. And when you're looking at smart phone device, tablets, net books, et cetera, it's more indoors and not outdoors. And therefore that has huge implications one of which is a lot of the uses of this is going to be on WiFi instead of on LTE networks going into the future with smart phones. The smart phones being built today are virtually all dual mode of either 3 G, 4 G right one or the other and WiFi. And it automatically looks because one of the biggest trends now developing in this whole area is what's called service provider WiFi. Because the operators of the network s understand that WiFi is friend not enemy.
Even two years ago it was seen as enemy. Today it's a friend because it allows of off loading of data traffic on to the WiFi network so it does not con jest the high-powered, longer distance GSM, 3 G or LTE networks that are reserved for more voice services or for people not within a WiFi hot spot. Looking at these trend, that is also going to enable even greater speeds, more of the video types of applications and entertainment applications and that's going to drive and create this cycle for more demand.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Just to answer or so I something about usage of WiFi. I totally agree WiFi is great technology and most of the phones are now built with WiFi and will be increasingly so in the future. However if we look at the parallel of what used to be the voice network, we had a great technology called Dect which was cordless phone technology, which was going to be quite popular but it didn't in the end. And the thing with WiFi is WiFi is basically very good when you have a local network and you want an extended that to be wireless, many of us use it at home or office or so on. WiFi is not necessarily the right things for long distance or if you don't have a fixed line coming to your home. Of course, it's also the possibility of combining WiFi and cellular of having, for instance, WiFi at home with cellular connection with Internet.
So, let's see who will be -- just it's actually the point it's not either or it's --.
>> JONNE SOININEN: No, it's the combination, and I don't see WiFi and long distance at all. It's just that given the patterns of usage that the majority of usage is actually indoors, as people begin to build our their own on campus, homes, offices, their WiFi hot spots will off load to those networks and I agree with you completely anything outside of that will be the higher powered licensed networks.
>> JONNE SOININEN: It's question of application as well. So usually when you have WiFi and you build up network in your home you usually need power as well in the home and stuff like that. So it depends on the application a little bit.
>> GEORGE SADOWSKY: Two comments here, Peter first.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Peter: Bob you hit the nail on the head. I think what we're seeing in the market -- I'm sorry, perhaps I should introduce myself Peter from Nokia Siemens networks we build the networks of customers and what we see is the application for mobile Internet usage through the smart phones is going through roof especially by usage of video. And what we see our customers doing that they start smarting up and they realize the potential benefit high powered usage of video which is congestion on the mobile network that they want to actually off load it quickly to alternative networks. So it's more or less if you are reasoning around with your mobile known and area without WiFi coverage then you go through the roaming through 3 G or later on 4 G environment, but, as soon as you reach an area of coverage the operators would actually want you not to do heavy usage through the mobile networks.
And I now have iPhone and that does it automatically since I enter here, the UN building with WiFi coverage it automatically switches over. So I think that's -- the issue is that these networks are complementary to each other and end user experience is what counts. What you want to make sure is end user gets best coverage possible and obviously WiFi network may have a better capability currently to provide you with a higher bandwidth. In the future that may change with long term evolution with higher coverage and bandwidth you might have much better solution also when you're not WiFi area.
>> GEORGE SADOWSKY: Thanks, Peter, next.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Sasha Mirath with open technology initiative. The comment got me thinking of some of the stuff happening with old dect bands repurposed for unlicensed GSM. I feel like this is an area I just don't hear regulators and people talking about. But it has profound implications for future business models. I heard couple days ago that 43% of disposal income here in Kenya is going into cellular phone technologies and that seems egregious from a social academic justice perspective, development perspective so. What I think about what are the business models that dropped the average return per user, that allow for people to spend for less of disposable income upon technology it is important to think differently about licensure and differently how you can build these kind of networks to spread connectivity to the last third of humanity.
>> GEORGE SADOWSKY: Thanks any follow comments. Jerry wants to introduce a new one I think.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Hi, just two quick comments I think deck is making a comment because ISP in France just gave me brand new set top box that comes with integrated DECT base station where I can bring my own cordless phone. It's pretty neat. I had never seen that before. One other thing the same ISP in France allows me to drive around France with mobile phone but any time I get within the range of another free subscriber I can log into their WiFi network. So via APECO cell. It's quite amazing you see this off load already. Thanks.
>> GEORGE SADOWSKY: Jerry.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Thank you, my name is -- Gris. I'm an African.
>> JONNE SOININEN: My apologies.
>> It's okay my middle name is Jerry, so thank you. My question goes to Mr. Sitati of Nokia. I'm glad you have the data that confirms that the problem for most people is a matter of head ware and not so much content. And so, I would like to understand what are the challenges in bringing this to the market because especially for all of the more established companies because we're seeing a situation in Africa where upcoming companies from the east are more willing to provide phones, for example, 3G and higher technologies that are affordable. This is not the case with more established companies which have a lot of loyalty in Africa. So I would like to understand what is the challenge in providing more affordable phones.
>> MOSES SITATI: I would not say unwillingness I would say Nokia is aware of coming up in emerging mark nets terms of Internet users and features reach mobile experience that users of the lower end of the pyramid want to experience in the mobile phones. So what I would say is that based on this awareness, that preparation is being done within the company to provide what users are looking for. Affordable cost, and also at good quality. So different Innovations are already in the pipeline, which would be evident quite soon.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Do we have a representative of a telecom, local telecom here. What I hear is rapid embrace of smart phones video occupying enormous amounts of bandwidth and what I the word congestion occurs to me. Is the capacity there? Is the demand? Will we spend more than 43% of income on telecom services? What's going to happen? Any speculation on that.
>> JONNE SOININEN: In order to meet this demand we need more spectrum for the networks. And the question is where is that spectrum going to come from.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Yes.
>> JONNE SOININEN: And there is actually one place where it's primed to come from for the broadband wireless broadband networks and that's 700 megahertz especially true in the emerging markets where that band which was allocated for broadcasting television in many of the emerging economies including a cross Africa it was never actually assigned or used by broadcasters. So in Europe, in the U.S., we talk about the digital transition and then digital dividend. In many or most emerging countries we can have digital dividend before transition because there's no transition to take place. Broadcasters are trying to grab that spectrum even though they don't want to use it and they wanted to use it in the future and don't need. It there's a huge opportunity for large blocks, big broad bands and chuncks of spectrum for LTE across emerging economies and to do it quickly to meet this growing demand.
And that's part of the conversation I think we need to have especially here given we're focusing on emerging economies.
>> JONNE SOININEN: I would like to thank Robert pepper for having explained much better than I would have to spectrum of management what I want to add is just congestion is, of course, the word to be used and it's not by chance that the -- in Europe, for instance, some auctions about the digital dividend are taking place, in Italy the auction just closed last week and the digital dividend was assigned for more than 3 billion euro amount of money more than administration expected and more than the operators expected too. And but it's true that broadcasters are occupying a lot of out of habit I would say, and out of tradition, historically, most of the spectrum that mobile operators are requiring to provide mobile Internet services.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Thank you.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Any more comments on this?
>> GEORGE SADOWSKY: Any more comments on this.
>> JONNE SOININEN: So I think it also brings up one of the core problems we have in the spectrum licensure today you have exclusive licenses that exist, whether or not you use those frequencies. So right now in Washington D.C. there's an ongoing battle about how much spectrum is being used and one of the things that we at new America foundation is pushing for is sort of use it or share it kind of new kind of licensure something that takes advantage of digital technologies such when you have places where you do have incumbent using a band, that they have priority. But in the places they have not built out or are not using frequencies those are made available for entrepreneurs and communities to build and develop their own infrastructure. Seems to me we have to get away from the false dichotomy it's all unlicensed or licensed and get into more innovative thinking on those issues.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Thanks, anybody else.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Yes.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Troy, from USAD I want to flag an issue to raise awareness about something that I think is slightly over the horizon a bit but an issue we already need to be sort of planning about and that is sort of the need for reform of Governance of universal service funds and if you follow this issue you know a lot of MNLs are displaced in countries where they are paid their millions and resource have not been used to expand the network, for one reason or another it's corruption or maybe capacity issue on the part of the countries in's USF. But, given that we have digital conversion on horizon in 20 15, and the fact that a lot of countries are planning to basically create a state-owned Monopoly, data propagation Monopoly, through which you know television broadcasting will have to occur and they're likely, in order to capture the most profit from the nationwide data you know the back haul infrastructure they're going to -- I heard stories where they plan and administrators in communication say we plan to force ISPs on to the service.
So, such that in the future, TV stations will be forced to go on there and lose ability to broadcast anything but original content and this is plan in Serbia and sort of the state of free media as it is going to be forced on to state-owned data propagation/broadcasting infrastructure and in addition, so as countries I'm sorry. This is complicated issue as countries facilitate their digital transfer, the most likely source of funds to create this data infrastructure will be universal service funds which M&Os have been paying for all this time. So suddenly, something which was a in the realm of correcting for market failure for cellular connections becomes simultaneously a freedom of information and access to information issue. So, that gets back to the thing that I said at first is we need to think about having civil society and media and other sort of representative entities and individuals play a role in the Governance and decision-making processes of universal service funds because they'll affect freedom of media.
And I also think, you know, potential for localized or language specific information or media services maybe in a region which has ethnic minority under served by media or communications and proper administration of USF could lead to improved communications for those populations. So I think we already again we need to be thinking about inclusive universal service of Governance processes if that -- I hope that made sense to people.
>> GEORGE SADOWSKY: Thanks, comments? Local experiences, one, two.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Okay. I think just to follow up on last speaker I think one of the challenges we've been trying to have you know local content for minority groups in places like Kenya, Parise because a lot of this content it tends to get pirated. Do you think this point you talked about needs to go hand-in-hand with enforcement with regards to reducing Piracy.
>> JONNE SOININEN: I think Piracy can be added through that issue. It's not Piracy to rebroadcast other content if licensed so if you're in several countries Armenia, Serbia, Hungary they will not put you up on the shared signal if it's not your original content. It destroys your base model as TV station. It negatively affects you as independent media outlet you're freedom of speech because you're destroyed by digital transfer.
>> JONNE SOININEN: From Peru, these two topics when we're talking about mobile networks we're not talking about different network. We'll have to talk about that network. Because it's mix of -- that is used to transport the data to end user. So, for example, what is been disclosed in Latin America is that it is deployment of state driven and state facilitating deployment of broadband networks that could be used to transport data that is part of -- that is used by the cellular users. So, it's a mix of technologies that could reduce transfer information not only spectrum. There's spectrum and also what you say about the phones yes, indeed, it is needed that with stakeholders a vision and globalness of universal access phones but also in the spectrum policy administration.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Yeah I would like to just present a small example of how things can work out. And in Germany we had last year auctions for the digital dividend spectrum. Digital dividend is that part of the spectrum around 800 megahertz in the U.S. 700 megahertz which is becoming free by the transition of the an log broadcast to digital broadcast because spectrum is used more efficiently when you have digital broadcasting so you can transmit the same amount of information even more using less spectrum and so without reducing the amount of information that can be broadcast, you have your -- you're re-freeing up a very valuable resource actually and options they bring in tonight in state so that is one positive effect in this difficult economic times but the interesting thing and learning from that is that they said, okay, first of all, 00 megahertz tech logically is one that has a physical properties of being better for propagation over larger areas and also has physical property it better goes through walls.
And it also has economic benefit that you can reach a larger area so potentially people who are living in rural areas benefit more from that with the usage of less tower so you have economic benefit and don't have to build so many towers and then now the real important part which I wanted to comment, because it ties into that issue about universal service, the German regulator made a concise decision not to introduce universal service obligation by means of regulation, but they used market-base add approach by saying, you, if you want to win that license, you have to roll out first to the smallest villages and second to the next biggest ones so they tied in essence the obligation to serve the under served communities with a commercial incentive once you rolled out there you can roll out into those areas that are commercially more attractive to you.
So you don't have to -- it's not necessary you produce a regulation top down bribes it you can use a combination of that perhaps with a market based approach and it works really well in Germany. Roll out started last year and it's something that I encourage you to have a look at.
>> GEORGE SADOWSKY: We have a question from a remote participation.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Okay. I'm Mary. This acquisition from Columbia Bogota they're asking their Government to promote local applications such applications rather than commercial applications.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Who wants to take that? Who wants to ask for clarification? We take it as a comment then. Yes.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Sorry OCD again I want to mention one thing I will walk away from IGF this year and go back to work with OCD thinking we have a lot to do in country from Kenya. I'll tell you why. I live in a village outside of Paris. And I don't get very good 3G coverage in my village. It's about 23 kilometers outside Paris. We went for a safari in the Masa Mara and I have a Safari SIM carried paid $10 for unlimited access one week and I had full 3G coverage in the middle of the Masa Mara reserve. We could take pictures of animals and upload to facebook and Google plus right there from the middle and I don't have that access outside of Paris. So I wanted to say, you're doing wonderful things here. And for the amount we pay in Europe for access, you're doing a good job. Thanks.
>> GEORGE SADOWSKY: Another comment in the far -- yes, please. Microphone please.
>> JONNE SOININEN: I was trying to think out loud because most of the information that we've got in is about people being able to access services through mobile. So it's almost like we have the services that we -- that users know you can use this using their phone. They can use mobile -- they can use agriculture and site services and we know that the web experience is not the same on mobile phone as it is on PC. And that we should not overlook that fact. But also I was thinking, since we are reaching most of our population in Africa using mobile phone other than using PC, what ways do we exploit making sure we get meaningful content on-line through those people we're reaching because we're talking about culture, talking about culture and many other different things that I mean, I know that people are applauding using facebook and all that.
But it's usually just for social you know, situations. But I'm talking about real content like the one we get on the Internet that has been uploaded over the years by you know developed countries. So I was just thinking out loud to say that can't we use the phone being inherently like a voice thing? Can we use the phone to directly record things to Internet or to Web site where it gets indexed and we keep our culture that way? Because everybody has a phone? So is that something we can do? How best do we use the basic phone in order to get real content that is not yet represented on the Internet from Africa? Thank you.
>> GEORGE SADOWSKY: Who would like to respond to that. Lots of possibilities here. John.
>> JOHN KARANJA: I'll tackle remote question first. Issue of social applications and commercial applications, we develop social applications as well as commercial applications and what we've seen is the middle issue of having social applications succeed in ability. And sustainability is dependent on whether people can actually pay for using these services that the social application is providing. And the challenge there is that we know like afternoon Kenian consumer has disposable income of say maybe $1 to $2 a month. So how do you collect money without incurring that cost for collecting money? And at the same time, make this application sustainable? So I think that is a challenge. And that is why if it can be integrated on to on-line platforms it can be a real game changer in terms of opening up commercial applications and making social applications sustainable.
>> GEORGE SADOWSKY: Thanks, I have two people in the queen, I think one and two, three. Four. Oh, my goodness. You're absolutely right I'm going to let this man jump my skew and --.
>> JONNE SOININEN: I'll try to be quick. I want go back to what Troy mentioned from a slightly different angle. One of the main threads that has run throughout IGF this time in this event has been around rights on-line. And freedom of expression and privacy. There's been a little talk about that in the mobile space wherein some ways they're even more threats because you're able I to collect more information about people and how mobile providers are using that and how law enforcement might have access to that and what restrictions there might be to how people are able to use their phone a thread that is not covered as much. There are few ways to effect that one is certainly friends that develop the actual infrastructure and technologies and certainly have a lot of influence over that and another possible way to make sure that these services fulfill the public good, is through the financing and there have been models where conditionality and financing -- conditionality on openness and respect for certain rights and financing has been effective way of getting at that.
So this idea of having a more multistakeholder process for whether it's looking at the financing as way of going back it or regulations, international level or local levels is something that is worth pursuing and so I guess I throw that open if there are ideas about how that's been done in the past successful or other comments.
>> GEORGE SADOWSKY: Thank you.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Hi thank you. I'm Roger Manurher from India and our company offers mobile development application in developing countries like -- this is about challenges and adaptation of mobility at the bottom of the pyramid. We had technology aspects and now I would like to briefly put this question to Mr. Months Sitati. I come from a countries in were there literacy rate is 60% where the penetration is close to 70% and that is the rest of the 40% can't read and write in English or any other vernacular languages they can just speak that's it. How could these users be encouraged to use mobile Internet? Can the hybrid of content plus -- can help to work on this issue? I heap, this is kind of roll up of what she has pointed out. Do you think we need to create on deck and imbedded application and kind of that could help users in bottom of pyramid who cannot read and write can share non-textual message like audio message something like one click access to information.
You click and speak about it and then you just call it. So is it a way to encourage the bottom of the pyramid users to use mobile Internet.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Okay. I think you actually already answered the question. Because those same challenges and some of the solutions you are proposing for us in our research activities, it's among our primary priorities to find suitable ways to get marginalized segments of the community especially those that cannot read and write to still be able to participate on the Internet or information sharing and exchange. So, my last slide, for example, I did mention about alternative user interfaces and in there, I was maybe I didn't talk about it explicitly, but in there, the implication was we need to understand some of those challenges and even the metaphors and gestures that are natural to users and see how to incorporate that into platforms that go beyond text. The next tuille interface. Those are questions that we're currently addressing.
But I wanted to add to add the question asked earlier, in our research we found that users may not even be aware that they have something to contribute in terms of skills or knowledge or content to the Internet. So they might be a climber for local content but at the same time the same users may not feel that they have something valid to share while in effect they have something to share. So, for us, we're looking at how do we -- while building this awareness, also build the tools, simple tools like the ones you mentioned to enable sharing of this content and then allow it to be visible to the right number of people and consumable at the same time.
>> GEORGE SADOWSKY: Any last thoughts we're at 6:00 and oh, yes, I'm sorry. -- yeah.
>> JONNE SOININEN: And I'm sorry. If I am not too optimistic. And I want to ask about social applications. And how -- and if -- how open are that applications if could be used by other operators or only with one operator, and if that is because my concern is about market concentration in wireless market. In the content we have only two operators and if one operator is started with this kind of services and is closed application, then it will consolidate position in market. And integrating with other social and governmental or banking services, and so they do it and it will be more and more difficult to rate and as I said it would be much broader picture if you go to Machu Picchu that is in the middle you will have 3G in every part of the mountain. But if you go beyond the mountain population is down the mountain don't have mobile phone fix telephone and not electricity and you know water service.
So they have to look at where do people live, and services where they're going where do they have to go.
>> GEORGE SADOWSKY: Thanks for the comment what I heard you say is that the network goes where the money is. Okay. Anybody have a burning comment that they won't be able to live if they don't provide it. All right. In that case, oh, one burning comment.
>> JONNE SOININEN: I think that these issues have been added and touched upon and I want to ask Alex Coninos from South Africa in research and I think this issue has been touched upon and I've also learned that mobile and fixed line Internet are complimentary rather than replacing each other which I think we learned a while ago with fixed line and mobile voice, but I'm concerned that mobile phones offer a similar Internet where it's as easy to create content where one can access the same applications as fixed Internet and where you're not channeled through applications and services that network providers want you to be channeled through. I'm talking about neutrality and talking about privileging of certain platforms like facebook, this is happening throughout Africa and so basically operator deciding because you don't have a proper computer what they want you to access.
>> GEORGE SADOWSKY: Okay. Point -- one more.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Just last point like this and other points here if we look at technical capabilities now of phones that are going to come and platforms these willing built on the opportunity to do similar kind of applications or the same applications that you have on the web and Internet today is definitely there. We're getting processors on our phones that recently came also on PCs. We're getting a lot of kind of like processing power due to connectivity. And cost effective package. So I think from that point of view, we can both add having similar experience on mobile phone as on PC and having capability of buying multi-media content and not just showing text that we're able to do just a couple of years ago on the phones.
>> JONNE SOININEN: Thank you.
>> GEORGE SADOWSKY: Thank you, that's a nice closing statement. This has been a lively discussion. Those of you who asked questions and who have made statements you know who you are. You have been able to see each other and you have two more days to hookup and continue conversations join me in thanking everybody that contributed to this session.